layout: true --- name: xaringan-title class: inverse, left, middle # .center[Research Income: A lottery, game or fair?] ## .center[Adrian Barnett, QUT] ### .center[7 December 2021] [<svg aria-hidden="true" role="img" viewBox="0 0 512 512" style="height:1em;width:1em;vertical-align:-0.125em;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-size:inherit;fill:currentColor;overflow:visible;position:relative;"><path d="M459.37 151.716c.325 4.548.325 9.097.325 13.645 0 138.72-105.583 298.558-298.558 298.558-59.452 0-114.68-17.219-161.137-47.106 8.447.974 16.568 1.299 25.34 1.299 49.055 0 94.213-16.568 130.274-44.832-46.132-.975-84.792-31.188-98.112-72.772 6.498.974 12.995 1.624 19.818 1.624 9.421 0 18.843-1.3 27.614-3.573-48.081-9.747-84.143-51.98-84.143-102.985v-1.299c13.969 7.797 30.214 12.67 47.431 13.319-28.264-18.843-46.781-51.005-46.781-87.391 0-19.492 5.197-37.36 14.294-52.954 51.655 63.675 129.3 105.258 216.365 109.807-1.624-7.797-2.599-15.918-2.599-24.04 0-57.828 46.782-104.934 104.934-104.934 30.213 0 57.502 12.67 76.67 33.137 23.715-4.548 46.456-13.32 66.599-25.34-7.798 24.366-24.366 44.833-46.132 57.827 21.117-2.273 41.584-8.122 60.426-16.243-14.292 20.791-32.161 39.308-52.628 54.253z"/></svg> @aidybarnett](http://twitter.com/aidybarnett) [<svg aria-hidden="true" role="img" viewBox="0 0 496 512" style="height:1em;width:0.97em;vertical-align:-0.125em;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-size:inherit;fill:currentColor;overflow:visible;position:relative;"><path d="M165.9 397.4c0 2-2.3 3.6-5.2 3.6-3.3.3-5.6-1.3-5.6-3.6 0-2 2.3-3.6 5.2-3.6 3-.3 5.6 1.3 5.6 3.6zm-31.1-4.5c-.7 2 1.3 4.3 4.3 4.9 2.6 1 5.6 0 6.2-2s-1.3-4.3-4.3-5.2c-2.6-.7-5.5.3-6.2 2.3zm44.2-1.7c-2.9.7-4.9 2.6-4.6 4.9.3 2 2.9 3.3 5.9 2.6 2.9-.7 4.9-2.6 4.6-4.6-.3-1.9-3-3.2-5.9-2.9zM244.8 8C106.1 8 0 113.3 0 252c0 110.9 69.8 205.8 169.5 239.2 12.8 2.3 17.3-5.6 17.3-12.1 0-6.2-.3-40.4-.3-61.4 0 0-70 15-84.7-29.8 0 0-11.4-29.1-27.8-36.6 0 0-22.9-15.7 1.6-15.4 0 0 24.9 2 38.6 25.8 21.9 38.6 58.6 27.5 72.9 20.9 2.3-16 8.8-27.1 16-33.7-55.9-6.2-112.3-14.3-112.3-110.5 0-27.5 7.6-41.3 23.6-58.9-2.6-6.5-11.1-33.3 2.6-67.9 20.9-6.5 69 27 69 27 20-5.6 41.5-8.5 62.8-8.5s42.8 2.9 62.8 8.5c0 0 48.1-33.6 69-27 13.7 34.7 5.2 61.4 2.6 67.9 16 17.7 25.8 31.5 25.8 58.9 0 96.5-58.9 104.2-114.8 110.5 9.2 7.9 17 22.9 17 46.4 0 33.7-.3 75.4-.3 83.6 0 6.5 4.6 14.4 17.3 12.1C428.2 457.8 496 362.9 496 252 496 113.3 383.5 8 244.8 8zM97.2 352.9c-1.3 1-1 3.3.7 5.2 1.6 1.6 3.9 2.3 5.2 1 1.3-1 1-3.3-.7-5.2-1.6-1.6-3.9-2.3-5.2-1zm-10.8-8.1c-.7 1.3.3 2.9 2.3 3.9 1.6 1 3.6.7 4.3-.7.7-1.3-.3-2.9-2.3-3.9-2-.6-3.6-.3-4.3.7zm32.4 35.6c-1.6 1.3-1 4.3 1.3 6.2 2.3 2.3 5.2 2.6 6.5 1 1.3-1.3.7-4.3-1.3-6.2-2.2-2.3-5.2-2.6-6.5-1zm-11.4-14.7c-1.6 1-1.6 3.6 0 5.9 1.6 2.3 4.3 3.3 5.6 2.3 1.6-1.3 1.6-3.9 0-6.2-1.4-2.3-4-3.3-5.6-2z"/></svg> @agbarnett](http://github.com/agbarnett) [<svg aria-hidden="true" role="img" viewBox="0 0 512 512" style="height:1em;width:1em;vertical-align:-0.125em;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-size:inherit;fill:currentColor;overflow:visible;position:relative;"><path d="M172.2 226.8c-14.6-2.9-28.2 8.9-28.2 23.8V301c0 10.2 7.1 18.4 16.7 22 18.2 6.8 31.3 24.4 31.3 45 0 26.5-21.5 48-48 48s-48-21.5-48-48V120c0-13.3-10.7-24-24-24H24c-13.3 0-24 10.7-24 24v248c0 89.5 82.1 160.2 175 140.7 54.4-11.4 98.3-55.4 109.7-109.7 17.4-82.9-37-157.2-112.5-172.2zM209 0c-9.2-.5-17 6.8-17 16v31.6c0 8.5 6.6 15.5 15 15.9 129.4 7 233.4 112 240.9 241.5.5 8.4 7.5 15 15.9 15h32.1c9.2 0 16.5-7.8 16-17C503.4 139.8 372.2 8.6 209 0zm.3 96c-9.3-.7-17.3 6.7-17.3 16.1v32.1c0 8.4 6.5 15.3 14.8 15.9 76.8 6.3 138 68.2 144.9 145.2.8 8.3 7.6 14.7 15.9 14.7h32.2c9.3 0 16.8-8 16.1-17.3-8.4-110.1-96.5-198.2-206.6-206.7z"/></svg> Median Watch](https://medianwatch.netlify.app) [<svg aria-hidden="true" role="img" viewBox="0 0 512 512" style="height:1em;width:1em;vertical-align:-0.125em;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-size:inherit;fill:currentColor;overflow:visible;position:relative;"><path d="M476 3.2L12.5 270.6c-18.1 10.4-15.8 35.6 2.2 43.2L121 358.4l287.3-253.2c5.5-4.9 13.3 2.6 8.6 8.3L176 407v80.5c0 23.6 28.5 32.9 42.5 15.8L282 426l124.6 52.2c14.2 6 30.4-2.9 33-18.2l72-432C515 7.8 493.3-6.8 476 3.2z"/></svg> a.barnett@qut.edu.au](mailto:a.barnett@qut.edu.au) --- class: center, middle # Favourite shade of blue? <img src="figures/blues.jpg" width="60%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- class: inverse, center # Equal allocation <img src="https://media.giphy.com/media/gbErpwcLlizvi/giphy.gif" width="90%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- class: inverse, center # Use a formula <img src="https://media.giphy.com/media/NbXTwsoD7hvag/giphy.gif" width="80%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- class: inverse, center # Strong manager method  Used by US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency and NASA --- class: center # Peer-to-peer distribution <img src="figures/bollen.png" width="68%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- # [James Lind Alliance](https://www.jla.nihr.ac.uk/top-10-priorities/) <img src="figures/james_lind.png" width="64%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- class: center # Standard peer review  --- # Noise in peer review <img src="figures/gallo.jpg" width="50%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> ###### [Gallo et al](https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0165147) _PLOS ONE_ 2016 --- class: center # Fund people not projects  <!--- Judge applications solely on the person ---> MacArthur Fellows programme in the USA --- class: center # Two-stage process  Used by ARC centres of excellence --- class: center # Random allocation  --- class: center # Random allocation <img src="figures/lottery_paper.png" width="78%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> -- 63% in favour of using lottery, 25% against